Wait for Rates, or Buy Now?
Mortgage rates are back above 7%. Waiting for a lower rate can make sense, but home prices rarely wait with you. Enter your plans below to see how buying now and refinancing later compares with waiting, using real King and Snohomish County data.
Your plans
More assumptions
Buying now and refinancing puts you about $2,603 ahead after 12 months.Even if rates fall to 6.50% as you expect, the waiting buyer pays $36,227 more for the same home and, after today's buyer refinances, still has a monthly payment $224 higher.
| At the moment the waiting buyer buys | Buy now, refi later | Wait | Difference for waiting buyer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Purchase | |||
| Purchase price | $842,500 | $878,727 | +$36,227 |
| Down payment | $168,500 | $175,746 | +$7,246 |
| Starting loan amount | $674,000 | $702,982 | +$28,982 |
| Monthly payment (principal & interest) | |||
| At purchase | $4,612at 7.28% | $4,443at 6.50% | −$168/mo |
| After today's buyer refinances | $4,219at 6.50% | $4,443at 6.50% | +$224/mo |
| Position after 12 months | |||
| Loan balance | $667,515 | $702,982 | +$35,467 |
| Home equity | $211,213 | $175,746 | −$35,467 |
| Cash spent getting here | $244,609 | $211,746 | −$32,864 |
| Net position (equity − cash spent) | −$33,397 | −$36,000 | −$2,603 |
Costs the waiting buyer moreWorks in the waiting buyer's favor
And if rates don't fall? Waiting 12 months and buying at today's 7.28% means a $4,810/mo payment, $198 more than buying today, with today's buyer about $12,616 ahead.
What if prices follow history?
Instead of guessing a price forecast, test your plan against what Seattle-area prices actually did after each of the last 10 times mortgage rates spiked. Each row replays that price path for your home and rates.
6 of 10 times, buying now came out ahead, by an average of $47,535.That's looking at a 12-month wait after each of the last 10 rate spikes, using your home price, rates and rent. In the 4 cases where waiting won, buying now was behind by an average of $46,584. Two of those were historically unusual: the 2022 rate shock (rates more than doubled, from 3% to 7%, in under a year) and the tail end of the 2007–2011 housing crash (2011). In the more typical spikes, the average shortfall was only $22,095.
| If prices follow the path after the… | Wait 6 mo | Wait 12 mo | Wait 18 mo | Wait 24 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Your forecast (+4.3%/yr) | −$4kprices +2.1% | $3kprices +4.3% | $10kprices +6.5% | $17kprices +8.8% |
| Nov 2024 rate spike | −$2kprices +2.3% | −$34kprices −0.1% | −$42kprices +0.4% | not yet |
| Aug 2023 rate spike | −$4kprices +2.1% | $10kprices +5.2% | $14kprices +7.1% | −$14kprices +5.1% |
| Jan 2022 rate spike | $14kprices +4.3% | −$75kprices −5.0% | −$51kprices −0.7% | −$56kprices 0.0% |
| Feb 2018 rate spike | $8kprices +3.5% | −$10kprices +2.8% | −$10kprices +4.2% | $20kprices +9.1% |
| Dec 2016 rate spike | $49kprices +8.4% | $73kprices +12.7% | $140kprices +22.2% | $97kprices +18.4% |
| Jun 2013 rate spike | $17kprices +4.6% | $39kprices +8.6% | $50kprices +11.4% | $82kprices +16.6% |
| Jan 2011 rate spike | −$36kprices −1.7% | −$67kprices −4.0% | −$34kprices +1.3% | −$20kprices +4.3% |
| Nov 2005 rate spike | $26kprices +5.7% | $75kprices +13.0% | $83kprices +15.3% | $69kprices +15.0% |
| Aug 2003 rate spike | $26kprices +5.7% | $51kprices +10.1% | $116kprices +19.3% | $181kprices +28.5% |
| Jun 1999 rate spike | $25kprices +5.6% | $37kprices +8.4% | $62kprices +12.8% | $59kprices +13.8% |
| For reference: 2007 crash peak (not a rate spike) | −$71kprices −5.8% | −$115kprices −9.8% | −$222kprices −21.2% | −$242kprices −22.3% |
What happened to prices after past rate spikes?
Seattle-area home prices in the two years after each of the last five times mortgage rates jumped 0.5% or more within six months. Prices are shown as the change from the month the jump was reached, seasonally adjusted, quarter by quarter.
| Rate jump | Rate move | Prices after 1 yr | After 2 yrs | Months below starting price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2016 | 3.44% → 4.20% | +12.7% | +18.4% | 0 |
| Feb 2018 | 3.81% → 4.33% | +2.8% | +9.1% | 0 |
| Jan 2022 | 2.84% → 3.44% (then to 7%) | -5.0% | 0.0% | 17 |
| Aug 2023 | 6.26% → 7.07% | +5.2% | +5.1% | 3 |
| Nov 2024 | 6.18% → 6.80% | -0.1% | Jul 2026: +0.4% | 4 so far |
Only one of the five saw a lasting decline: 2022. That jump was the start of the fastest rate climb in 40 years (3% to 7% in under a year). Seattle prices first ran up another 10%, then fell 13.9% from their May 2022 peak and sat below their January 2022 level for 17 straight months. In the other four, any dips were 4% or less and short-lived, and prices were higher two years later in every case but 2022, which ended about flat.
Last time rates were here
2023 → 2024: rates fell, prices didn't wait
| Sept 2023 rate / King median | 7.20% · $775,000 |
| Aug 2024 rate / King median | 6.50% · $860,000 |
| King median change | +11.0% |
| King pending sales, Sept '23 → Sept '24 | 1,833 → 2,321 (+27%) |
A buyer who waited 11 months for 0.7% off their rate paid roughly $85,000 more for the median home. Smoothing for monthly noise (3-month averages), prices still rose about 8.6%.
King County today: buyers have leverage
| Median sale price (Sept) | $842,500 · −2.0% YoY |
| Months of inventory | 5.1 (3.7 a year ago) |
| Avg. days on market | 40 |
| Sale price vs. original list | 95.7% |
| 30-yr mortgage rate (Oct 1) | 7.28% |
More homes to choose from, longer market times and room to negotiate. Leverage like this tends to fade quickly once rates drop and buyers return.
Want us to run your exact numbers with a lender?
Talk with Reece HomesFor illustration only; not financial, tax or legal advice. Payments shown are principal and interest only. "Head start" compares each buyer's equity minus everything they spent (down payment, mortgage payments, ownership costs and refinance costs for today's buyer; rent for the waiting buyer) at the date the waiting buyer purchases. It assumes today's buyer refinances into a new loan at your target rate when it arrives, and does not include purchase closing costs (similar for both buyers), interest earned on savings, or tax effects. Future rates and home prices are uncertain and may differ from any forecast. Refinancing depends on credit, income and equity at the time. Market data: Northwest Multiple Listing Service® via InfoSparks © 2026 ShowingTime, all property types, through September 2026; mortgage rate: Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average, week of Oct 1, 2026. Past rate spikes: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Seattle Home Price Index (via FRED, through July 2026), seasonally adjusted by Reece Homes; a spike is a rise of 0.5 points or more in the monthly average rate within six months. Historical growth rates are compound annual changes in the monthly median sale price.
